Depending on how the Lylo falls, we could be in a position where we don't even have to take any risks to win.
02/26/2016 08:42:58
Maribro said:
Depending on how the Lylo falls, we could be in a position where we don't even have to take any risks to win.
Maribro is right. We have wooy to ensure we dont get out mafiad as well
02/26/2016 08:49:47
I'm just trying to rethink the scenario that happened in Night 3 and why I think the mafia already knows who the doctor is.
Let's look back at the plan we agreed on before going into Night 3:
For this purpose, I am assuming that every power role followed the plan as intended, is it'd look scummy if anyone strayed from the plan. It's still within the realm of possibility that one of us strayed, but we'll cross the bridge when we get there.
Because Corvid flipped as Serial Killer, Wooy would've followed through with the plan and enacted a kill shot, choosing from either Hydro or a suspicious townie. In this instance, he chose LEF.
At this point of the game, we didn't know that Hydro had a 1 shot kill immunity, and we thought that we can bypass the roleblocker by presenting the possibility of a double tap on Hydro. The mafia, armed with this knowledge, decided to roleblock someone else instead of Wooy, as a roleblock + 1 shot kill immunity combo to protect Hydro will make town suspect of foul play, and possibly find out about the 1 shot kill immunity. In addition to this, they could focus their efforts in finding the doctor using roleblock, possibly by process of elimination.
By chance and/or other circumstances, the mafia would have roleblocked the doctor on Night 3, resulting in Pazx's death. I have faith that our doctor, in Invisi's words, "not a complete idiot" and followed through with the Pazx save. But by correctly and successfully roleblocking the doctor on Night 3, the mafia have hit two birds with one stone:
1. They killed the Town Cop
2. They now know who the doctor is
Using that knowledge, they can now kill the doctor during Night 4... or so they thought.
I believed the doctor caught on to what happened during Night 3, and realised that the mafia knows who he is. Thus, during Night 4, he performed a save on himself to keep himself alive. At the moment, that is the most plausible reason I can think of as of why our Town Cop died during Night 3 and no one died during Night 4.
But the issue with this scenario is that for this Night 4 scenario to occur, the roleblocker would've had to target someone other than the doctor, as the play that need to occur is the both mafia would target the doctor, roleblocking AND killing him.
This presents another conundrum: does the mafia know that the doctor knows that the mafia knows who the doctor is? (yes, I know it's confusing but stay with me here for a second).
If the answer to this question is no, the mafia would've roleblocked someone else, possibly Urisk. This explains how no one died despite the mafia knowing who the doctor is. But this also means that Urisk is hiding something from us, possibly lying to us about something.
If the answer is yes, that means the mafia still roleblocked someone else, despite knowing that the doctor is aware that he is in danger. They must've thought that the doctor will attempt a last ditch effort to protect Urisk before he dies during the night, so instead they targeted Urisk with the kill. But that doesn't make sense, since shooting Urisk is enough to silence him, and they could just roleblock the doctor to secure the kill.
I think the doctor is the prime target for a kill tonight, and they will try to kill him again tonight. To ensure their death, they would have to use BOTH the roleblock and the shot on the doctor, which leaves Urisk for another investigation. This also leaves Wooy to kill another suspicious townie, so we can further eliminate the possible candidates for mafia. I think either way, the doctor is screwed tonight and it's in his best interest to show up to share what info he has. But then again... they could just target Urisk or Wooy, so idk.
Still waiting on Barry to respond btw.
And please no LyLo, shit's too risky.
02/26/2016 08:58:42
Let's look back at the plan we agreed on before going into Night 3:
Pazx said:
neva 4get:
Pazx said:Here's the plan.
Doctor: protect Pazx
Pazx: investigate Invisi
Maribro: kill Hydro
If Corvid turns out to be a VT:
Wooy: kill Hydro
Pazx said:
Ok something I was thinking about earlier but it slipped my mind for a bit, if our second announced nightkill isn't threatening to the mafia they'll just block maribro, so we actually might need to keep wooy's kill secret.
IMO if Corvid is not bulletproof, Wooy and Maribro both target Hydro.
If Corvid is bulletproof, Wooy needs to randomly choose between whoever the town decides (@Barry you are effectively at L-1 right now) and Hydro, to keep the roleblocker guessing.
I strongly believe there is a mafia roleblocker in this game.
For this purpose, I am assuming that every power role followed the plan as intended, is it'd look scummy if anyone strayed from the plan. It's still within the realm of possibility that one of us strayed, but we'll cross the bridge when we get there.
Because Corvid flipped as Serial Killer, Wooy would've followed through with the plan and enacted a kill shot, choosing from either Hydro or a suspicious townie. In this instance, he chose LEF.
At this point of the game, we didn't know that Hydro had a 1 shot kill immunity, and we thought that we can bypass the roleblocker by presenting the possibility of a double tap on Hydro. The mafia, armed with this knowledge, decided to roleblock someone else instead of Wooy, as a roleblock + 1 shot kill immunity combo to protect Hydro will make town suspect of foul play, and possibly find out about the 1 shot kill immunity. In addition to this, they could focus their efforts in finding the doctor using roleblock, possibly by process of elimination.
By chance and/or other circumstances, the mafia would have roleblocked the doctor on Night 3, resulting in Pazx's death. I have faith that our doctor, in Invisi's words, "not a complete idiot" and followed through with the Pazx save. But by correctly and successfully roleblocking the doctor on Night 3, the mafia have hit two birds with one stone:
1. They killed the Town Cop
2. They now know who the doctor is
Using that knowledge, they can now kill the doctor during Night 4... or so they thought.
I believed the doctor caught on to what happened during Night 3, and realised that the mafia knows who he is. Thus, during Night 4, he performed a save on himself to keep himself alive. At the moment, that is the most plausible reason I can think of as of why our Town Cop died during Night 3 and no one died during Night 4.
But the issue with this scenario is that for this Night 4 scenario to occur, the roleblocker would've had to target someone other than the doctor, as the play that need to occur is the both mafia would target the doctor, roleblocking AND killing him.
This presents another conundrum: does the mafia know that the doctor knows that the mafia knows who the doctor is? (yes, I know it's confusing but stay with me here for a second).
If the answer to this question is no, the mafia would've roleblocked someone else, possibly Urisk. This explains how no one died despite the mafia knowing who the doctor is. But this also means that Urisk is hiding something from us, possibly lying to us about something.
If the answer is yes, that means the mafia still roleblocked someone else, despite knowing that the doctor is aware that he is in danger. They must've thought that the doctor will attempt a last ditch effort to protect Urisk before he dies during the night, so instead they targeted Urisk with the kill. But that doesn't make sense, since shooting Urisk is enough to silence him, and they could just roleblock the doctor to secure the kill.
I think the doctor is the prime target for a kill tonight, and they will try to kill him again tonight. To ensure their death, they would have to use BOTH the roleblock and the shot on the doctor, which leaves Urisk for another investigation. This also leaves Wooy to kill another suspicious townie, so we can further eliminate the possible candidates for mafia. I think either way, the doctor is screwed tonight and it's in his best interest to show up to share what info he has. But then again... they could just target Urisk or Wooy, so idk.
Still waiting on Barry to respond btw.
And please no LyLo, shit's too risky.
02/26/2016 08:58:42
STOP, why kill 3 townies because you're hellbent on lynching me? Why aren't we lynching Invisi or Barry as Mafia candidates!?
you're making a huge mistake lynching me, give me a chance, if we lynch one of the other candidates and they end up being Mafia then we can work from there. Urisk isn't lying, my role comes back as anti town on the first investigation, it confirms him completely as town!!
02/26/2016 09:01:37
you're making a huge mistake lynching me, give me a chance, if we lynch one of the other candidates and they end up being Mafia then we can work from there. Urisk isn't lying, my role comes back as anti town on the first investigation, it confirms him completely as town!!
02/26/2016 09:01:37
@JLo
Doctor's can't heal themselves. I was told this when I was asking dean about my one shot save power. Perhaps the doctor has a power similar to Wooy's that only operates on alternating nights. Idk none of this adds up…
02/26/2016 09:07:29
Doctor's can't heal themselves. I was told this when I was asking dean about my one shot save power. Perhaps the doctor has a power similar to Wooy's that only operates on alternating nights. Idk none of this adds up…
02/26/2016 09:07:29
Aerodrome said:
STOP, why kill 3 townies because you're hellbent on lynching me? Why aren't we lynching Invisi or Barry as Mafia candidates!?
you're making a huge mistake lynching me, give me a chance, if we lynch one of the other candidates and they end up being Mafia then we can work from there. Urisk isn't lying, my role comes back as anti town on the first investigation, it confirms him completely as town!!
You're unusually emotional atm Aero, not being your kiss-ass self. That's not a good look. But if we're forcing LyLo, no way am I hammering you, I'm strongly opposed to going to LyLo and I'm not willing to call your bluff just yet.
Maribro said:
@JLo
Doctor's can't heal themselves. I was told this when I was asking dean about my one shot save power. Perhaps the doctor has a power similar to Wooy's that only operates on alternating nights. Idk none of this adds up…
Yeah idk, I guess a doctor with powers in alternating nights makes sense, but still doesn't explain how the doctor didn't die during Night 4. We'll have to think about this carefully...
02/26/2016 09:13:47
JLo said:
You're unusually emotional atm Aero,
Give him a few hours, he just had a haircut
02/26/2016 09:17:14
that picture looks terrible LOL Whatever I'm a beautiful person
02/26/2016 09:20:50
Aerodrome said:
This is the face of Vengeance…?
02/26/2016 09:21:17
IM DORK PIT AND IM VENGEFUL ENOUGH TO HAVE MY OWN SLOT ON YHE ROSTER
02/26/2016 09:23:11
02/26/2016 09:23:11
I still refuse to acknowledge Dark Pit as a member of the roster.
I omit him in every tier list I draft up.
02/26/2016 09:24:29
I omit him in every tier list I draft up.
02/26/2016 09:24:29
Jlo what more than likely happened is the mafia know who the doctor is. Attempted to kill wooy last night as he is stronger than myself becaue we need to kill multiple people but he is still affected by stale move negation. I have a feeling wooy may have a 1shot kill protection as we saw dean is very leinient with them.
We know that there are 4 unkown players 2 of which are townie and 2 are mafia. Invisi has pretty keenly come out as anti me which is pretty is counter to almost every other person in the town.
Ontop of this we know pazx was killed for investigating invisi.
So our options are let aero kill himself. To avoid anyone else getting killed. Or we lynch invisi.
Since we're planning to kill invisi anyway is there any harm in letting him be the last vote.?
02/26/2016 09:30:51
We know that there are 4 unkown players 2 of which are townie and 2 are mafia. Invisi has pretty keenly come out as anti me which is pretty is counter to almost every other person in the town.
Ontop of this we know pazx was killed for investigating invisi.
So our options are let aero kill himself. To avoid anyone else getting killed. Or we lynch invisi.
Since we're planning to kill invisi anyway is there any harm in letting him be the last vote.?
02/26/2016 09:30:51
Back on topic…
My feelings on today:
1) I trust Aero
2) We can try and abuse Aero's power to try and find mafia
3) A lylo situation will likely contain Urisk, myself and wooy. We are all basically confirmed townies at this stage and we can effectively eliminate the mafia without too much trouble
4) Wooy should be extremely careful with his night kill. Maybe don't even use it tonight (if Aero blows up and kills a townie). A miss will guarantee a mafia win
5) I wouldn't be against a Doctor play. We need as much info as possible. Might be risky and Urisk doesn't like the idea so… Entirely up to the Doc.
Idk though
02/26/2016 09:36:22
My feelings on today:
1) I trust Aero
2) We can try and abuse Aero's power to try and find mafia
3) A lylo situation will likely contain Urisk, myself and wooy. We are all basically confirmed townies at this stage and we can effectively eliminate the mafia without too much trouble
4) Wooy should be extremely careful with his night kill. Maybe don't even use it tonight (if Aero blows up and kills a townie). A miss will guarantee a mafia win
5) I wouldn't be against a Doctor play. We need as much info as possible. Might be risky and Urisk doesn't like the idea so… Entirely up to the Doc.
Idk though
02/26/2016 09:36:22
My issue is that even with the knowledge of who the doctor is, the mafia still opted for a kill on someone else rather than getting rid of the doc, knowing that the doc can't protect himself. What would they gain by letting the doctor live for longer?
I'm still perplexed by Pazx's death, the doctor must've had a hand in this fiasco. He might've tried to out-metagame the mafia, which backfired horribly.
I'm not sure you can get Invisi to cast the hammer vote, when we haven't even heard about his thoughts on possibly going into a LyLo.
02/26/2016 09:36:48
I'm still perplexed by Pazx's death, the doctor must've had a hand in this fiasco. He might've tried to out-metagame the mafia, which backfired horribly.
I'm not sure you can get Invisi to cast the hammer vote, when we haven't even heard about his thoughts on possibly going into a LyLo.
02/26/2016 09:36:48
Can we just lynch Invisi instead if you think he's mafia, it might shed some light on things.
02/26/2016 09:39:15
02/26/2016 09:39:15
I'd like a confirmation from dean at this point
If Aero is the last person to vote for himself, will the dark pit staff only affect him or will it actually affect the person that voted before him?
02/26/2016 09:39:36
If Aero is the last person to vote for himself, will the dark pit staff only affect him or will it actually affect the person that voted before him?
02/26/2016 09:39:36
Abilities that affect the hammerer don't work if the hammerer is the one with the ability.
02/26/2016 09:42:42
02/26/2016 09:42:42
dean said:
Abilities that affect the hammerer don't work if the hammerer is the one with the ability.
This means that if aero is town he will happily kill himself. And he wont if he is anti town.
I dont want to have to blow an additional investigation to prove that he is either lying or not.
When we could be using it on one of the remaining 3 players to take out the last mafia.
02/26/2016 10:06:19
Urisk said:
Jlo what more than likely happened is the mafia know who the doctor is. Attempted to kill wooy last night as he is stronger than myself becaue we need to kill multiple people but he is still affected by stale move negation. I have a feeling wooy may have a 1shot kill protection as we saw dean is very leinient with them
Unfortunately I don't have any 1 shot protection that I know of.
02/26/2016 10:18:44
Maybe the doc has a one shot protection and the mafia don't actually have a role blocker?
02/26/2016 10:19:48
02/26/2016 10:19:48
Lynching oneself has been heavily frowned upon in BOTH games, I'm not going to do it because it's an anti town thing to do. You just HAVE to trust me here, please. The mafia also won't target me now because it's literally suicide which means that the doctor has one less person to protect (not that they would protect someone as "suspicious" as me I guess).
Maribro trusts me, JLo seems neutral. I don't know about the rest. SURELY there's a way around this?
Like how I started the Corvid vote train, I'm going to hesitantly start another:
VOTE: Invisi, Pazx's final investigation target
02/26/2016 10:21:00
Maribro trusts me, JLo seems neutral. I don't know about the rest. SURELY there's a way around this?
Like how I started the Corvid vote train, I'm going to hesitantly start another:
VOTE: Invisi, Pazx's final investigation target
02/26/2016 10:21:00
Aero killing yourself at this point isn't anti town at all, in fact it's really pro town.
We don't know how honest you are at this stage. Yes I believe you are probably telling the truth but I still have the voice of the ghost of pikachu, telling me not to believe everything on face value.
The less willing you are to lynch yourself, the worse this looks for you. Town outnumbers Mafia 4:1 at this stage and removing one person from the list of potential scum will take us one step closer to a victory for all of us. We can't validate your investigation claim because urisk shouldn't bother investigating you again. I really want to trust you but the correct play is staring me right in the face and we can't afford liabilities right now.
02/26/2016 10:31:50
We don't know how honest you are at this stage. Yes I believe you are probably telling the truth but I still have the voice of the ghost of pikachu, telling me not to believe everything on face value.
The less willing you are to lynch yourself, the worse this looks for you. Town outnumbers Mafia 4:1 at this stage and removing one person from the list of potential scum will take us one step closer to a victory for all of us. We can't validate your investigation claim because urisk shouldn't bother investigating you again. I really want to trust you but the correct play is staring me right in the face and we can't afford liabilities right now.
02/26/2016 10:31:50
I standby steadfastly on lynching Invisi. He's way more suspicious than I am. If we assume you, JLo, Wooy and Urisk are town, lynch Invisi that leaves Barry and Windkeeper left, you can investigate one with Urisk's Back-Up ability and if they're town then the other has to be the last mafia. If they're not then I'll lynch myself if you haven't found anyone better to lynch. Wooy doesn't even need to use Back Throw tonight, he can save it for the next night phase.
02/26/2016 10:39:22
02/26/2016 10:39:22
Vote: Unvote
02/26/2016 10:53:37
02/26/2016 10:53:37
A further extrapolation for aero being town is that with his reveal, the doctor is definitely known by the Mafia. I also think it's pertinent that pazx highlighted my invisi Barry hydro laggy team. I believe that pazx investigated Barry on night 1 and found him to be town aligned, however he believed that Barry is the Mafia godfather.
I think it's a good bet to lynch Barry tonight. If we end up lynching the non godfather tonight, our investigation will be useless tonight except to corroborate aero's story.
I will leave voting till I've heard from urisk and wooy. My first point kinda doesn't fit with the rest of the post but it's still very relevant. If we believe aero then maybe the doc should clear some people of guilt. MAYBE
02/26/2016 11:14:34
I think it's a good bet to lynch Barry tonight. If we end up lynching the non godfather tonight, our investigation will be useless tonight except to corroborate aero's story.
I will leave voting till I've heard from urisk and wooy. My first point kinda doesn't fit with the rest of the post but it's still very relevant. If we believe aero then maybe the doc should clear some people of guilt. MAYBE
02/26/2016 11:14:34