I will always advocate for lynching anti-town players in day 1. Unless someone is a literal god of mafia and snipes scum right off the bat (hint: no one is), increasing the town's overall strength is always a good play.
8 years ago
what was the fire emblem game i forgot about it was i good i went back and read it and man i was a god that game im gonna try to be a god this game too the only reason we didnt reason is because everybody else sucked so maybe everybody should try to not suck yes?
8 years ago
8 years ago
i'm reading through the FE mafia from the end backwards and hydro has half the town on his ass in day 4... how do you do it LMAO but to your credit it sounds like you figured out a couple mafia so credit to you.
still, if we end up getting unlucky and hitting town both day 1 and 2 like in the last game, someone like that is a pretty big liability to have around. yes i'm biased + a little bit salty but whatever.
8 years ago
still, if we end up getting unlucky and hitting town both day 1 and 2 like in the last game, someone like that is a pretty big liability to have around. yes i'm biased + a little bit salty but whatever.
8 years ago
JLo said:That's true but if we aren't going to lynch laggy, corvid or LachlanF then we don't have a strong anti-town player to lynch, at least as of right now. So we either go for one of them or go for the plan I stated before.
I will always advocate for lynching anti-town players in day 1. Unless someone is a literal god of mafia and snipes scum right off the bat (hint: no one is), increasing the town's overall strength is always a good play.
8 years ago
While I somewhat agree with you wind, going the 'let's lynch the least useful player atm' strategy is what lost us the game last time.
It doesn't make sense to make that approach again.
I think we should just wait it out for now and try to gather more information.
On a side note, Lumi's suggestion of not lynching is also a bit odd considering this has been brought to attention in multiple games now, but it could be the inexperience.
8 years ago
It doesn't make sense to make that approach again.
I think we should just wait it out for now and try to gather more information.
On a side note, Lumi's suggestion of not lynching is also a bit odd considering this has been brought to attention in multiple games now, but it could be the inexperience.
8 years ago
Hmmmm as "anti town" as you all think it is, we're almost garunteed to hit town day 1 lynch.
So small chance we hit Mafia, big chance we lose at least 2 townies by day 2. But I still think we should lynch day 1
8 years ago
So small chance we hit Mafia, big chance we lose at least 2 townies by day 2. But I still think we should lynch day 1
8 years ago
Bijou said:
At some point he clued in that Ghost was mafia but it was too late for him by that stage.
Yeah he knew he was mafia when Ghost voted for him LOL
8 years ago
MrL said:
On a side note, Lumi's suggestion of not lynching is also a bit odd considering this has been brought to attention in multiple games now, but it could be the inexperience.
Luminescent has played Town of Salem I think?
8 years ago
The reason that people say no random lynch in Town of Salem is that you only get about a minute to discuss each day so you can't really get any solid evidence as well as everyone being a useful power role. This leads to the mafia being killed almost exclusively because someone checked them that night since there are at least 3 investigative roles and a jailor who can kill, protect and talk to the person they jail in each game.
tl;dr Basically the difference between Town of Salem and this is that we get tons more time and we can't be sure that all the power roles will be useful.
8 years ago
tl;dr Basically the difference between Town of Salem and this is that we get tons more time and we can't be sure that all the power roles will be useful.
8 years ago
I just did a Google search for 'mafia why you should lynch day 1' and majority of the results I got were saying town usually wins more often by no lynching Day 1 lol.
Will try find that Atyeo post about why you should lynch and compare it to these other links Here's the famous Atyeo post:
http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/36913-Day-1-Lynch-Policy-Analysed
https://www.reddit.com/r/PloungeMafia/comments/105kce/regarding_whether_or_not_it_is_good_to_lynch_day/
8 years ago
Will try find that Atyeo post about why you should lynch and compare it to these other links Here's the famous Atyeo post:
Atyeo said:Here are a couple of links suggesting a no lynch works in the towns favour more:
So I did some quick googling about the no lynch play on day 1
"If the game starts with an odd number of players, no lynching takes away one of the town's mislynches prior to the scum getting the endgame win.
In a 9 player game with 2 scum, you lose upon mislynching for a third time. If you no lynch, you can only mislynch once. (And will lose upon the second mislynch.)
Getting more town controlled kills on the scum is going to give you a much better chance of winning than getting less. (You can probably even point to a higher scum win % on the relevant site.)
Let's take your classic newbie setup, as an example.
7 town
2 scum
Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but lynch every day from then, and scum also kills every night.
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)
Now let's say town lynch D1:
D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)
As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone D1. There's some rule about that, it's in the wiki somewhere.
This is just from a statistical PoV, but lynching D1 is almost always better."
http://www.sc2mafia.com/forum/showthread.php/36913-Day-1-Lynch-Policy-Analysed
https://www.reddit.com/r/PloungeMafia/comments/105kce/regarding_whether_or_not_it_is_good_to_lynch_day/
8 years ago
The first ones doesn't specifiy it's sample size at all and so working out how significant the data is is kinda hard. There's wayyyy less data for no lynches than d1 lynches. In fact, if the overall sample set is assumed to be 100 games, only 23% of them are won after a no lynch day 1 compared to 32% after a day 1 lynch. The data also doesn't factor in the mechanics of the game ie power roles, skill of players for each side which are pretty huge factors in who wins games. Also at the end of the day, all a no lynch does is leave us in the same position as day 1 except we have one less townie.
The reddit link was basing it off a computer simulation and although that's neat, it doesn't really factor in that a lot of Mafia is about human interaction. The top comment summed it up perfectly imo.
Overall I feel the same way as I did before reading those links. No lynch day 1 isn't a good play.
8 years ago
The reddit link was basing it off a computer simulation and although that's neat, it doesn't really factor in that a lot of Mafia is about human interaction. The top comment summed it up perfectly imo.
Overall I feel the same way as I did before reading those links. No lynch day 1 isn't a good play.
8 years ago
For those who either are too lazy to check, or can't; here's the important information from the top comment that maribro mentioned:
"You can not simulate a game of mafia with random numbers. It doesn't work. In fact not only has attempting to do so historically (both at amateur and professional levels) been incorrect, the results are often the opposite of true.
Mafia is a game of information and trust. Not of random chance. You don't lynch people on the first day without information because it's statistically likely to lead to a beneficial result when it's completely randomized. You do it because gathering information on the players and forcing people to interact is how you make your decisions on who to investigate and who to lynch later in the game more accurate."
I still agree with Maribro, JLo and CJ on lynching day 1. We should draw the day out as long as we can to get the most information (however little it may be). oh rip just realised the mafia link was a forum too lmao.
Here's the top comment for that one too.
"That doesn't seem like a huge difference, yes town wins more games they no lynch. But does that have to do with game mechanics at all? Like, some games mechanics are much different than all. So this data isn't as reliable as you may expect.
Though I agree, we tend to lynch more town than scum day 1.
If you townread everyone in the game is the only reason you should not lynch someone. Though that is often rare. I don't think players should compromise onto lynching a townread of theirs."
8 years ago
"You can not simulate a game of mafia with random numbers. It doesn't work. In fact not only has attempting to do so historically (both at amateur and professional levels) been incorrect, the results are often the opposite of true.
Mafia is a game of information and trust. Not of random chance. You don't lynch people on the first day without information because it's statistically likely to lead to a beneficial result when it's completely randomized. You do it because gathering information on the players and forcing people to interact is how you make your decisions on who to investigate and who to lynch later in the game more accurate."
I still agree with Maribro, JLo and CJ on lynching day 1. We should draw the day out as long as we can to get the most information (however little it may be). oh rip just realised the mafia link was a forum too lmao.
Here's the top comment for that one too.
"That doesn't seem like a huge difference, yes town wins more games they no lynch. But does that have to do with game mechanics at all? Like, some games mechanics are much different than all. So this data isn't as reliable as you may expect.
Though I agree, we tend to lynch more town than scum day 1.
If you townread everyone in the game is the only reason you should not lynch someone. Though that is often rare. I don't think players should compromise onto lynching a townread of theirs."
8 years ago
its weird because in all of our mafia games, we havent did a day 1 no lynch.
a no lynch could work, but its really up to you guys to lynch or not.
8 years ago
a no lynch could work, but its really up to you guys to lynch or not.
8 years ago
I'll start doing inactivity timers once Ghost is able to actively post.
So while I won't give out warnings, please try to post, makes the game more fun. :)
8 years ago
So while I won't give out warnings, please try to post, makes the game more fun. :)
8 years ago
The difference in this game to keep in mind as well is that since Aero is a mod then most players are going to have power roles. In this case if we lynch someone we run the risk of lynching a good role.
Also, Ateyo's post above is simply numbers and statistics as well by the way. You guys have been using it to advocate a day 1 lynch every game but as far as I see it you're just basing that on numbers too.
Anyway the point is I'm not saying we should / shouldn't no lynch. Just that we don't -have- to do a day 1 lynch every time, particularly in a game where there will be a lot of power roles.
If we can get a read on someone or kill off a historically anti town player then it'll be worth, but I'm just suggesting that you guys don't have to blindly lynch day 1 just because it was taken as gospel that it's something that needs to happen every game.
Tl;dr: don't force a random lynch for the sake of lynching day 1, it's not as important as people have made it out to be in the past + this game will have a lot of power roles. Obviously town can't win if we don't ever lynch though lol, just saying that if we can't get any good information a no lynch could potentially be a better play than killing a townie on a whim.
8 years ago
Also, Ateyo's post above is simply numbers and statistics as well by the way. You guys have been using it to advocate a day 1 lynch every game but as far as I see it you're just basing that on numbers too.
Anyway the point is I'm not saying we should / shouldn't no lynch. Just that we don't -have- to do a day 1 lynch every time, particularly in a game where there will be a lot of power roles.
If we can get a read on someone or kill off a historically anti town player then it'll be worth, but I'm just suggesting that you guys don't have to blindly lynch day 1 just because it was taken as gospel that it's something that needs to happen every game.
Tl;dr: don't force a random lynch for the sake of lynching day 1, it's not as important as people have made it out to be in the past + this game will have a lot of power roles. Obviously town can't win if we don't ever lynch though lol, just saying that if we can't get any good information a no lynch could potentially be a better play than killing a townie on a whim.
8 years ago
VOTE: UNVOTE
voting for dean was obviously a joke.
8 years ago
voting for dean was obviously a joke.
8 years ago
That's a good point actually. But I don't think it's wise to base our gameplan on a hunch that there's more power roles than usual.
Plus, I doubt that someone with a power role would do nothing to prevent themselves from being lynched.. I see what you mean though.
Do you have any ideas on what should be done atm?
8 years ago
Plus, I doubt that someone with a power role would do nothing to prevent themselves from being lynched.. I see what you mean though.
Do you have any ideas on what should be done atm?
8 years ago
We should just make sure the day is drawn out as long as possible to extract as much information as we can. Mafia have most of the power during the night so maximising our day time is beneficial to the town. Also the longer the day goes the more likely a mafia will slip up trying to rush the game along Also we should put pressure on people who are less active to talk more. Last game 3/4 of the mafia hardly ever posted lol Also I tend to say also a lot
8 years ago
8 years ago
We should also wait until Ghost can post actively until reaching a decision.
8 years ago
8 years ago
Extra said Ghost might be staying until Digital Bunker (Saturday 17th I think, hard to find info),
so if that's true... we'll be waiting for a while.
8 years ago
so if that's true... we'll be waiting for a while.
8 years ago
Sup guys
I'm on board for a no lynch day 1 just to see how it plays out Thu. Plays out tbh*
8 years ago
I'm on board for a no lynch day 1 just to see how it plays out Thu. Plays out tbh*
8 years ago
Since on the topic, for some people that might not know, you can Vote: No Lynch if you so desire and don't wish to wait until the 25th.
8 years ago
8 years ago
ill be on board with a no lynch if were going toget no Info
8 years ago
8 years ago
No lynch seems like a bad idea, I'm staunchly against it.
8 years ago
8 years ago
So... how to get an info?
Like I get it, people need to talk but um how to have conversation?
People say asking questions is a good way to keep conversations going, but I wouldn't know anyway because socialising is a foreign topic to me.
8 years ago
Like I get it, people need to talk but um how to have conversation?
People say asking questions is a good way to keep conversations going, but I wouldn't know anyway because socialising is a foreign topic to me.
8 years ago