Oh I just saw Maribro's post. I must admit, the presence of a second killing faction is not unlikely, so I don't think we have enough info to convict him. But Spacejam's death makes him look super suss. I'll Unvote for now though.
May I also ask for mod clarification on whether a player contacted by a masoniser who subsequently died on the same night through other causes would receive notification of this contact?
9 years ago
Maribro said:
Just quickly before I go to work, Spacejam attempted to make contact with me via his masoniser role. As such it's likely there are two killing factions and whoever killed Luminous did so due to suspicions toward Corvid.
Well that was the stupidest post ever
9 years ago
If a masonizer dies on the night that they recruit someone the recruitment still takes place.
9 years ago
9 years ago
Just to clarify in my definitely-100%-hypothetical scenario that the targeted player is a townie. Okay, thanks Dean.
So we have two possibilities. Either a serial killer killed Spacejam, or Maribro is mafia. Anything else is so unlikely it's not really worth considering imo.
Also we still have no idea why the mafia hate LuminousLucas so much. Some VIC beef I'm not aware of? Does InsertName secretly hate everyone in his scene? Is Duon next? But jokes aside, it can't be coincidence that he's died twice in a row now.
9 years ago
So we have two possibilities. Either a serial killer killed Spacejam, or Maribro is mafia. Anything else is so unlikely it's not really worth considering imo.
Also we still have no idea why the mafia hate LuminousLucas so much. Some VIC beef I'm not aware of? Does InsertName secretly hate everyone in his scene? Is Duon next? But jokes aside, it can't be coincidence that he's died twice in a row now.
9 years ago
Ghostbone said:
Maribro said:
Just quickly before I go to work, Spacejam attempted to make contact with me via his masoniser role. As such it's likely there are two killing factions and whoever killed Luminous did so due to suspicions toward Corvid.
>Spacejam dies if he visits mafia
>Dies same night as visiting Maribro
Ummmmmmmm
Why would maribro claim this if we was Mafia? I thought invisi was calling him out on lying, that spacejam didn't contact him. But then... Hm
9 years ago
Maribro said:
As such it's likely there are two killing factions and whoever killed Luminous did so due to suspicions toward Corvid.
2nd killing faction is likely town aligned, I don't think it's anything more than an unfortunate coincidence Lumi died twice.
9 years ago
I'm going to go play League of Lesbians now, I'll check the thread before bed and mention anything I think of.
9 years ago
9 years ago
cjeccjec said:
Ghostbone said:
Maribro said:
Just quickly before I go to work, Spacejam attempted to make contact with me via his masoniser role. As such it's likely there are two killing factions and whoever killed Luminous did so due to suspicions toward Corvid.
>Spacejam dies if he visits mafia
>Dies same night as visiting Maribro
Ummmmmmmm
Why would maribro claim this if we was Mafia? I thought invisi was calling him out on lying, that spacejam didn't contact him. But then... Hm
THE DOUBLE BLUFFS MY DUDE
9 years ago
Vote: Aerodrome
Still convinced he's mafia after everything that has happened. Would like to continue pressuring him.
9 years ago
Still convinced he's mafia after everything that has happened. Would like to continue pressuring him.
9 years ago
cjeccjec said:
Why would maribro claim this if we was Mafia? I thought invisi was calling him out on lying, that spacejam didn't contact him. But then... Hm
It's a bluff, if hypothetically someone from town was watching maribro for example, they'd see that spacejam visited him and died.
And now that we know spacejam's role, that looks very bad for maribro.
9 years ago
Oh my god, I just realized that it's Day 3! I probably should have checked the thread more frequently, huh. Well, this is definitely an interesting situation. I was so certain that Lachlan would be Mafia and I'd be next.
I think Aero is the most likely to be Maf right now. My reasoning is that since Aero has been in multiple games, wouldn't he know that Lachlan doesn't really give a shit about Mafia? It's fairly reasonable to say that Lachlan was doing stupid things because he didn't care. I'm gonna go with Maribro on this one and pressure Aero.
VOTE: Aerodrome
9 years ago
I think Aero is the most likely to be Maf right now. My reasoning is that since Aero has been in multiple games, wouldn't he know that Lachlan doesn't really give a shit about Mafia? It's fairly reasonable to say that Lachlan was doing stupid things because he didn't care. I'm gonna go with Maribro on this one and pressure Aero.
VOTE: Aerodrome
9 years ago
Okay, so what I've made of the whole Maribro saying he was visited was spacejam is this.
These are our possibilities:
1. He's telling the truth, and he's mafia
2. He's telling the truth, he's town, and there is indeed an SK.
3. He's bluffing, and he's pulling an insane mindgame tactic with mafia.
Now with number one, I'd say it's least likely. Maribro is a strong player and he would never do that if he's telling the truth and he's mafia. I think anyone with a brain wouldn't do that option. So people may be going "If he's mafia, why did he do it then?!" That's where option three comes into place. Knowing maribro this wouldn't be that unlikely.
The benefit of possibility three for Maribro is that he basically gets an escape option out of every pressure situation that is to come later in the game, using this as prime evidence. He's basically saying "I'm town so there is definitley an SK.
Possibility Two is still not out of the question, however. Maybe he is indeed just a townie and there is definitley a third party faction that can kill.
Although, if Possibility 2 is correct, this still seems a bit too convenient.
I'm leaning towards he's bluffing, but I won't leave he's town out of the question.
9 years ago
These are our possibilities:
1. He's telling the truth, and he's mafia
2. He's telling the truth, he's town, and there is indeed an SK.
3. He's bluffing, and he's pulling an insane mindgame tactic with mafia.
Now with number one, I'd say it's least likely. Maribro is a strong player and he would never do that if he's telling the truth and he's mafia. I think anyone with a brain wouldn't do that option. So people may be going "If he's mafia, why did he do it then?!" That's where option three comes into place. Knowing maribro this wouldn't be that unlikely.
The benefit of possibility three for Maribro is that he basically gets an escape option out of every pressure situation that is to come later in the game, using this as prime evidence. He's basically saying "I'm town so there is definitley an SK.
Possibility Two is still not out of the question, however. Maybe he is indeed just a townie and there is definitley a third party faction that can kill.
Although, if Possibility 2 is correct, this still seems a bit too convenient.
I'm leaning towards he's bluffing, but I won't leave he's town out of the question.
9 years ago
cAKE said:You can rule out possibility 3 - looking at Spacejam's post history, he made it abundantly clear that he intended to target Maribro last night.
These are our possibilities:
1. He's telling the truth, and he's mafia
2. He's telling the truth, he's town, and there is indeed an SK.
3. He's bluffing, and he's pulling an insane mindgame tactic with mafia.
Maribro suggesting the second killer last night was town aligned is kinda suspicious, but also possibly ignorant. As I said earlier, any reasonable vigilante would not have acted last night, or if they did they definitely would not have targeted either of the players who died. The only reasonable second faction is a serial killer.
9 years ago
I'm going to sleep now. There's a tourney coming up on Saturday, so I'll be going to sleep at around 9 this week.
9 years ago
9 years ago
SpaceJam said:
inb4 maribro is maf and kills me during the night lmao
Just gonna quote this cos it's very relevant
9 years ago
Ghostbone said:
SpaceJam said:
inb4 maribro is maf and kills me during the night lmao
Just gonna quote this cos it's very relevant
Oh damn.
Also I've just re read the last few things and I'm only so clues less and such a bad reader / interpreter at times >.<
9 years ago
it is way more likley maribro is maf than maf targeted spacejam/ lucas aswell as another party that hit both of those and in order for there to be 2nd killing role they would have missed night 1 which is also unlikely. 2 unlikley vs 1 likely im thinking maribro is probably mafia
9 years ago
9 years ago
Holy, that was a lot to read.
After the events of the night I'd like to think there is either a serial killer or two mafia factions, it's not unlikely with 20 people. There is also now the possibility that night 1 the mafia targeted a stronger player who was mafia traitor or the medic was successful?
Also the fact that Lucas died twice in a row must mean someone believes he is either really good or just doing it out of spite.
At the moment I would like to still place some pressure on Aero at least because he really did try to redirect attention on to someone else and most specifically Lachlan despite other players also voting for him beforehand.
I was thinking about voting for him but i think 2/8 is enough pressure at the moment. Also I forgot to ask, did Spacejam Mason with you night 1 or 2 Maribro?
9 years ago
After the events of the night I'd like to think there is either a serial killer or two mafia factions, it's not unlikely with 20 people. There is also now the possibility that night 1 the mafia targeted a stronger player who was mafia traitor or the medic was successful?
Also the fact that Lucas died twice in a row must mean someone believes he is either really good or just doing it out of spite.
At the moment I would like to still place some pressure on Aero at least because he really did try to redirect attention on to someone else and most specifically Lachlan despite other players also voting for him beforehand.
I was thinking about voting for him but i think 2/8 is enough pressure at the moment. Also I forgot to ask, did Spacejam Mason with you night 1 or 2 Maribro?
9 years ago
Rhyno said:
Holy, that was a lot to read.
After the events of the night I'd like to think there is either a serial killer or two mafia factions, it's not unlikely with 20 people. There is also now the possibility that night 1 the mafia targeted a stronger player who was mafia traitor or the medic was successful?
Also the fact that Lucas died twice in a row must mean someone believes he is either really good or just doing it out of spite.
At the moment I would like to still place some pressure on Aero at least because he really did try to redirect attention on to someone else and most specifically Lachlan despite other players also voting for him beforehand.
I was thinking about voting for him but i think 2/8 is enough pressure at the moment. Also I forgot to ask, did Spacejam Mason with you night 1 or 2 Maribro?
Just curious and a little off topic but are you bijou's brother or something? Cos ya both have the same nnid.
9 years ago
cjeccjec said:
Just curious and a little off topic but are you bijou's brother or something? Cos ya both have the same nnid.
Roommates?
9 years ago
I doubt Maribro is mafia but as Hydro pointed out it makes sense mathematically. Im so conflicted
9 years ago
9 years ago
InsertName said:
I doubt Maribro is mafia but as Hydro pointed out it makes sense mathematically. Im so conflicted
What makes you think he's not mafia? If you actually look over his post history he really hasn't been saying much of substance, just long posts summarizing what's been happening over the day. The only things he's been 'proposing' are just hammering townies.
Everyone just has that general stigma that Maribro has to be town, right? I think he took advantage of that in his post saying there must be an SK because he has to be town. I've always thought people are trusting Maribro a little too much and not bothering to investigate or pressure him as he's the one who's doing all that.
Marbiro is a smart player, and I wouldn't be suprised if he was mafia. I had my suspicions before, but that last statement got me leaning towards that he's maf. Not voting just yet, as it's not strong enough, bu the math is against you, Maribro.
9 years ago
I guess im just in denial Ill re read his posts to see for my self
9 years ago
9 years ago
Lmao Maribro tryna say I'm mafia to misdirect everyones attention elsewhere.
I'll get the ball rolling I guess.
Vote: Mariboro
This is the most damning post in this thread.
Personally I'm reading this as "if Maribro is Mafia I'll die because I targeted him".
Maribro also made no mention of becoming a mason.
100% maf and should be lynched today.
9 years ago
I'll get the ball rolling I guess.
Vote: Mariboro
SpaceJam said:
inb4 maribro is maf and kills me during the night lmao
This is the most damning post in this thread.
Personally I'm reading this as "if Maribro is Mafia I'll die because I targeted him".
Maribro also made no mention of becoming a mason.
100% maf and should be lynched today.
9 years ago
People keep theorycrafting about what went on last night, but I really don't think there's any theorycrafting left to be done. I've said all this before, but let me explain my points again more clearly. In my mind, there are only two likely possibilities:
1. There is a single killing faction, the mafia. There is no serial killer. Maribro is a member of the mafia. The mafia has targeted LuminousLucas two nights in a row (for some reason that's worth looking into later). Spacejam died as a result of attempting to contact Maribro, who is a member of the mafia.
2. There is an independant killing faction (a serial killer) in addition to the mafia. One of these factions failed to make a successful kill during the first night. Spacejam's death is unrelated to Maribro's alignment, and it was merely coincidence that one of the killing factions targeted him on the same night that he decided to contact Maribro.
I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a combination of the above two (eg. a serial killer exists but failed to kill two nights in a row, and Spacejam died from contacting mafia), but such a combination theory would bring in unnecessary complications which aren't worth considering in our current situation because they aren't helpful to consider (see: Occham's Razor).
Any other possibility (town aligned vigilante action, second mafia faction, etc) I personally consider as so unlikely that I'm willing to rule them out completely. (I have already explained why I rule out the possibility of a town aligned vigilante acting last night).
Furthermore, the only reason we are considering such a scenario is because it is the only way in which Maribro could be town. He did a good job of convincing most of us he was town (ironically enough it was his trustworthiness that got Spacejam to target him and subsequently raise suspicion), but we have to let go of this preconceived notion that he's a town member. Because, looking at the likely scenarios, he's probably not.
Vote: Maribro
9 years ago
1. There is a single killing faction, the mafia. There is no serial killer. Maribro is a member of the mafia. The mafia has targeted LuminousLucas two nights in a row (for some reason that's worth looking into later). Spacejam died as a result of attempting to contact Maribro, who is a member of the mafia.
2. There is an independant killing faction (a serial killer) in addition to the mafia. One of these factions failed to make a successful kill during the first night. Spacejam's death is unrelated to Maribro's alignment, and it was merely coincidence that one of the killing factions targeted him on the same night that he decided to contact Maribro.
I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a combination of the above two (eg. a serial killer exists but failed to kill two nights in a row, and Spacejam died from contacting mafia), but such a combination theory would bring in unnecessary complications which aren't worth considering in our current situation because they aren't helpful to consider (see: Occham's Razor).
Any other possibility (town aligned vigilante action, second mafia faction, etc) I personally consider as so unlikely that I'm willing to rule them out completely. (I have already explained why I rule out the possibility of a town aligned vigilante acting last night).
HydroPimp said:This point is actually super relevant, and I had a similar thought myself this morning. The coincidences involved in my second point above (it requires the coincidence that a killing faction made a failed attempt on the first night, and that a killing faction targeted Spacejam last night) leads me to believe that such a scenario is unlikely.
it is way more likley maribro is maf than maf targeted spacejam/ lucas aswell as another party that hit both of those and in order for there to be 2nd killing role they would have missed night 1 which is also unlikely. 2 unlikley vs 1 likely im thinking maribro is probably mafia
Furthermore, the only reason we are considering such a scenario is because it is the only way in which Maribro could be town. He did a good job of convincing most of us he was town (ironically enough it was his trustworthiness that got Spacejam to target him and subsequently raise suspicion), but we have to let go of this preconceived notion that he's a town member. Because, looking at the likely scenarios, he's probably not.
Vote: Maribro
9 years ago